2 oct 2026 · @ProvisionAi
Why carriers reject tenders when freight bunches up
A tender rejection happens when a carrier declines a load a shipper offered under contract. The tender rejection rate is the share of tenders carriers decline, and many rejections start with a shipment plan that releases freight in bunches the carrier network cannot absorb.
When a replenishment plan concentrates freight on a few days, carriers cannot cover all of it at contract rates. Rejected loads leave the core carriers, move down the routing guide, and some end up on the spot market. This guide explains what a routing guide and the tender rejection rate are, why carriers say no, and what shippers can do about it.
Key takeaways
- A tender rejection happens when a carrier declines a contracted load. The load moves down the routing guide and may end up on the spot market.
- The tender rejection rate is rejected tenders divided by total tenders. The SONAR index stood at 13.45% on September 10, 2026.
- MIT research links lane volatility and weekend pickups to lower primary-carrier acceptance, so volume that bunches up is costly.
- Deployment planning software such as ProvisionAi’s LevelLoad smooths the schedule before freight is tendered.
What is a routing guide?
A routing guide is the ranked list of carriers a shipper uses on each lane, with the contracted rate and expected volume for each one.
When a load is ready, the shipper’s system sends a tender to the first carrier on the list. If that carrier declines, the tender moves to the second, then the third. If no one accepts, the load goes to the spot market at whatever the market charges that day.
Routing guide depth is how far down the list a load travels before someone takes it. The deeper it goes, the more the load usually costs and the later it is covered.
What is the tender rejection rate?
The tender rejection rate is the share of contracted loads that carriers decline.
\text{Tender rejection rate} = \frac{\text{rejected tenders}}{\text{total tenders}} \times 100\%A related metric is first tender acceptance: how often the first carrier on the routing guide says yes. Shippers watch both because every rejection pushes a load down the list.
The FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Rejection Index stood at 13.45% on September 10, 2026, well above the same point in prior years (FreightWaves). The same report put the national van spot rate at $3.43 per mile including fuel, with diesel approaching $6 per gallon.
Why do carriers reject tenders?
Carriers decline loads when accepting them hurts their own plan. MIT researchers note that a truckload carrier’s costs depend on whether the truck finds a good follow-on load, and on empty miles and waiting time (MIT CTL). The usual reasons:
- No equipment or driver nearby. Capacity is committed elsewhere or tight in that region (BTX Global Logistics).
- The contract rate fell behind the market. A better-paying load is available, so the contract load loses (BTX).
- Too little lead time, or a lane that leaves the truck empty. Both reduce the chance of an acceptable follow-on load (MIT CTL).
- Long dwell at the facility. MIT lists dwell time, with regional effects and freight imbalances, among the factors beyond distance that shape what shippers pay.
- Inconsistent volume. MIT found carriers more likely to accept loads on consistent lanes, and rejections more likely as lane volatility rises.
Most of these can be improved by the shipper. Volume consistency is the one a transportation team has the least control over, because it is set upstream by the replenishment plan.
Why bunched volume makes rejections worse
Carriers accept steady freight more often than spiky freight, and weekend surges are among the strongest predictors of a rejection.
An MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics study of three years of shipper tender data (2015 to 2018, full-truckload dry van over 250 miles) found that higher lane volatility, weekend pickups and quarter-end pickups were each linked to lower primary-carrier acceptance. Its authors advise shippers to control weekend and quarter-end surges by scheduling shipments better (MIT CTL).
Where does the bunching come from? Kimberly-Clark’s VP of global planning and logistics described orders that bunched up during the week, delaying shipments and raising picking and transport costs. He added that its TMS, WMS and planning systems did not share data (Logistics Management).
Demand itself is also amplified as it moves upstream, a pattern known as the bullwhip effect. P&G found that diaper orders swung far more than the steady consumption behind them (MIT Sloan Management Review).
In ProvisionAi’s experience, the deployment planner who decides which trucks leave each day works in a narrow window set by carrier and warehouse lead times, even when the planning system can see weeks ahead.
How does tender rejection raise transportation costs?
Every step down the routing guide costs more. In the MIT data, cost per mile rose about 5.3% when a load moved from the primary carrier to the first alternate in the tight 2017-18 market, up from 4.4% in 2015-16. The average cost per load was lowest when the primary carrier accepted, higher with backup carriers and highest on the spot market (MIT CTL).
That makes lowering tender rejections a direct route to transportation cost reduction. The MIT authors estimated that moving from the worst case to the best case on the factors they modeled could save up to $195.90 per load, or 11.9% to 16.9% on the two lanes they used as examples. They advise shippers to raise primary acceptance and backup routing guide compliance, and refusal rates are a standard metric in carrier performance reviews.
For more on cutting truckload costs, see ProvisionAi’s page on truckload freight cost reduction.
What shippers can do about it
Five levers lower rejections and cost, and the MIT data points most strongly to volume consistency.
| Lever | What to do | What the evidence says |
|---|---|---|
| Smooth volume across the week | Spread freight over the days with the most carrier capacity instead of letting it bunch. | In the MIT model, a weekend pickup added about $22.96 per load, a quarter-end pickup $27.84 and high lane volatility $22.08 (MIT CTL). |
| Tender earlier | Give carriers more days between tender and pickup. | Tenders with under 2 days of lead time added about $41.60 per load, and over 5 days saved about $13.66. In that data, more lead time cut cost but did not clearly raise acceptance (MIT CTL). |
| Share consistent forecasts | Give core carriers lane-level volume forecasts that stay consistent from week to week. | MIT found carriers more likely to accept loads on consistent lanes, and rejections more likely as lane volatility rises (MIT CTL). |
| Track primary acceptance | Measure how often the first carrier says yes, not only whether someone eventually does. | MIT found the average cost per load is lowest when the primary carrier accepts, higher with backup carriers and highest on the spot market (MIT CTL). |
| Cut dock dwell | Reduce waiting at facilities and loosen appointment windows. | Long waits at the dock make a facility’s freight less attractive to carriers (BTX). |
The first lever is the hardest, because the spikes are created before the load reaches the transportation team.
How ProvisionAi’s LevelLoad reduces tender rejections
LevelLoad is deployment planning software. Deployment planning decides how much inventory to send, when and to which locations across a distribution network, and LevelLoad adds the missing check of whether the transportation network can execute that plan (LevelLoad). It goes after the cause instead of the symptom: it reshapes the shipment schedule before the freight reaches the tender.
- Read the plan. Instead of the narrow window a deployment planner works in, ProvisionAi describes LevelLoad as taking about 30 days of planned replenishment from the planning system and checking it against dock throughput, carrier capacity, warehouse labor and lane balance (LevelLoad).
- Smooth the spikes. It brings forward the need date of product likely to be short and pushes back less urgent requirements (ProvisionAI press release, June 2023).
- Reserve carriers early. LevelLoad can submit a “placeholder” stock transfer order to trigger early tendering and reserve capacity. The contents are not set until just before shipping, so the most needed product goes out (same release).
- Re-plan every day. The schedule is re-optimized daily as supply and demand change.
- Work with the systems already in place. The schedule goes back to the ERP, and the existing ERP and TMS workflow handles the tendering (LevelLoad).
LevelLoad decides when freight ships. Its companion, AutoO2, decides how each truck is loaded.
What a shipper saw: Kimberly-Clark
Kimberly-Clark ships 1,100 to 1,500 truckload equivalents a day across its North American network. Its VP of global planning and logistics told Logistics Management that orders were bunching during the week, which delayed shipments and raised picking and transport costs (Logistics Management, November 2023).
Kimberly-Clark piloted LevelLoad at one distribution center, then expanded it across its North American distribution sites. As of that report, daily variability was down 40% and savings had reached the multi-million dollar range per year (same article).
Open items before publishing (delete this block once confirmed with Tom):
- Variability: this section uses the 40% that Kimberly-Clark’s VP gave Logistics Management in November 2023. ProvisionAi has since reported 60% (Tom Moore, April 2024). Confirm that 60% is an updated result and that Kimberly-Clark approves it before using it.
- First tender acceptance: no figure from Kimberly-Clark or a third party was found. Confirm 97% or 98% and its source before adding it.
- Add a one-sentence quote from Kimberly-Clark only with their approval.
Frequently asked questions
What does tender rejection mean?
A tender rejection happens when a carrier declines a load a shipper offered under a contract. The load then moves to the next carrier on the routing guide, and to the spot market if no one accepts.
How is the tender rejection rate calculated?
Divide the number of rejected tenders by the total number of tenders, then multiply by 100. A shipper that tenders 500 loads in a month and has 40 rejected has an 8% rejection rate.
What is a routing guide?
A routing guide is the ranked list of carriers for each lane, with their contracted rates. Tenders go to the first carrier, then down the list until one accepts.
Why do carriers reject more loads when freight bunches up?
Carriers plan equipment around expected volume, and bunched freight is harder to cover at contract rates. An MIT study linked higher lane volatility and weekend pickups to lower primary-carrier acceptance.
How can shippers reduce tender rejections?
Spread freight more evenly across the week, tender earlier, share consistent volume forecasts with core carriers, track primary acceptance and cut dock dwell time. LevelLoad does the first part by building a smoothed 30-day shipment schedule and reserving carrier capacity early.
What is a good tender rejection rate?
There is no universal benchmark. It depends on the freight mode, lanes and market, so compare against your own history and by lane rather than relying on a single number (BTX Global Logistics).
What is deployment planning?
Deployment planning decides how much finished inventory to send, when and to which locations across a distribution network. It sits between the supply plan and transportation execution (ProvisionAi).
How does LevelLoad reduce tender rejections?
LevelLoad builds a smoothed 30-day shipment schedule and can submit placeholder stock transfer orders so preferred carriers are tendered earlier (ProvisionAI press release, June 2023).
See how much of your volume bunching is avoidable
If carriers keep rejecting your tenders, the first step is to see where your plan creates the bunching. Run the free 15-minute diagnostic or talk to an expert.
About ProvisionAi
ProvisionAi (provisionai.com) is a B2B supply chain optimization software company based in Franklin, Tennessee. Its two products work alongside existing planning, ERP, TMS and WMS systems: LevelLoad, deployment and transportation network planning software, and AutoO2, truckload load building software.
Sources
All pages opened on October 2, 2026.
- FreightWaves: Tender Rejections at 13.5%: Tight Market or Fade? (September 10, 2026)
- MIT CTL: Root cause analysis and impact of unplanned procurement on truckload transportation costs
- Logistics Management: Kimberly-Clark streamlines order fulfillment & optimizes transportation (November 6, 2023)
- MIT Sloan Management Review: The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains (1997)
- BTX Global Logistics: Freight Tender Rejection Rate (July 30, 2026)
- ProvisionAI press release: How to Break Down Silos to Fill the Gap Between Transportation Planning and Execution (June 6, 2023)
- ProvisionAi: LevelLoad
