First, the bad news:
- OPEC+ agreed to extend all production curbs into next year and adjust supply down (if needed) —Crude oil prices will stay in the current range
- Truck volume, measured by posts to DAT’s van spot market, is down ~6% from April to May and ~23% from May 2023.
The worst news:
When volume trends up, expect a significant spike in rates as a reduced carrier base (many are going out of business), weakened by low or no profitability, tries to (but fails) to scale up.
The good news:
- Diesel prices are still falling (See graph from the Wall Street Journal)
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- The Panama Canal increased the allowed vessel draft ahead of schedule as an early rainy season improves conditions.
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